Manuscript Title:

TREND ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES USING MANN KENDAL & SEN’S SLOPE ESTIMATOR: A CASE STUDY OF LASBELA (BALOCHISTAN)

Author:

ROMANA AMBREEN, SABIHA MENGAL, TEHMOOR REHMAN, SHABIR AHMED, ABDUL MANAN

DOI Number:

DOI:10.17605/OSF.IO/8TH5A

Published : 2023-07-10

About the author(s)

1. ROMANA AMBREEN - Department of Geography & Regional Planning, University of Balochistan, Quetta, Pakistan.
2. SABIHA MENGAL - Department of Geography & Regional Planning, University of Balochistan, Quetta, Pakistan.
3. TEHMOOR REHMAN - Department of Geography & Regional Planning, University of Balochistan, Quetta, Pakistan.
4. SHABIR AHMED - Education Department, Government of Balochistan, Pakistan.
5. ABDUL MANAN - Lasbela university of Agriculture water and marine sciences Uthal, Baluchistan, Pakistan.

Full Text : PDF

Abstract

This study is focused on to determine the district Lasbela's rainfall and temperature trends as a sign of the region's climatic variability. Nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimation techniques are used to analyses trends for monthly rainfall and temperature data for 21 years (1999-2020). In terms of rainfall, only the month of December exhibits a negative tendency; the other months fall into a positive trend. In terms of temperature, eight months exhibit a negative trend; the remaining four exhibit a positive trend. Neither a statistically significant trend in rainfall nor a trend in temperature are seen. While Sen's slope for temperature shows no change for five months, February, June, July, August, and September, the remaining months—January, March, April, May, October, November, and December show a negative trend. Sen's slope also shows no change in the size of the trend for rainfall.


Keywords

Climate change, Mann-Kendall test, Rainfall, Sen’s slope estimator, Temperature, Trend analysis.