Manuscript Title:

ESTIMATION OF THE IMPORTANCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS FUTURE EFFECT ON THE YIELD OF FOUR LEGUMES IN MOROCCO

Author:

LOUBABA BENATMANE, FATIMA EL YAMANI, HEFDHALLAH ALAIZARI, ABDELAZIZ MAQBOUL, MOHAMED FADLI, ZIDANE LAHCAN

DOI Number:

DOI:10.17605/OSF.IO/PS2AF

Published : 2022-07-23

About the author(s)

1. LOUBABA BENATMANE - Laboratory of Plant, Animal and Agro-Industry Productions, Faculty of Sciences, Kenitra Ibn Tofail University, Kenitra, Morocco.
2. FATIMA EL YAMANI - Laboratory of Plant, Animal and Agro-Industry Productions, Faculty of Sciences, Kenitra Ibn Tofail University, Kenitra, Morocco.
3. HEFDHALLAH ALAIZARI - Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Education, University of Dhamar, Yemen.
4. ABDELAZIZ MAQBOUL - Laboratory of Plant, Animal and Agro-Industry Productions, Faculty of Sciences, Kenitra Ibn Tofail University, Kenitra, Morocco.
5. MOHAMED FADLI - Laboratory of Plant, Animal and Agro-Industry Productions, Faculty of Sciences, Kenitra Ibn Tofail University, Kenitra, Morocco.
6. ZIDANE LAHCAN - Laboratory of Plant, Animal and Agro-Industry Productions, Faculty of Sciences, Kenitra Ibn Tofail University, Kenitra, Morocco.

Full Text : PDF

Abstract

The adaptation of agricultural production systems to climate change must take into account the foreseeable impact on crop production based on the knowledge available on the ecophysiology of crops, applied to the simulation of the effects of climate scenarios. Thus, the present work aims to estimate the impact of climate change on the yield of legumes in Morocco. To do this, in this work we applied multiple regression models to estimate the evolution of the yield of four leguminous crops (bean, broad bean, pea and chickpea) during the period 2002-2013. Thus, using HadCM3 model scenarios, an analysis was performed to project the effects of climate change on leguminous crops. The results show that the explanatory variables of yield are the main climatic variables (precipitation and temperature). The results also show that, in the long term, the impact of climate change will be more accentuated in the study region. Indeed, on the basis of the estimation results of this analysis, we carried out a simulation of the impact of climate change on agriculture relative to the projections of a moderate scenario by 2090. According to this simulation 2090 the yield reductions of the four species will be as follows: bean (-55.9%), broad bean (-39%), pea (-25%) and chickpea (-24.9%). Thus, the yields of all four legumes are affected and beans will be the most affected.


Keywords

Climate change - simulation - legumes - yield - evolution – Morocco.