1. Dr. LALITHA P S - Assistant Professor, Department of MBA, School of Management, CMR University, Bangalore, India.
2. KALPANA POLISETTY - Department of Mathematics & Statistics, School of Applied Sciences & Humanities, Vignan’s Foundation
for Science, Technology and Research, Vadlamudi, Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, India.
This study investigates hydropower generation across major South Asian countries, namely Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The paper focused on exploring through descriptive statistics, employing change points, homogeneity tests, and the Mann-Kendall Trend Test, alongside Sen’s Slope analysis, the study evaluates the trends in hydropower generation. Additionally, ARIMA models are applied to the data, optimizing parameters (p, d, q) to identify the most suitable model. Utilizing ACF and PACF plots and considering AIC and BIC for model selection, the study forecasts hydropower generation (TWh) for major SAARC nations. This comprehensive analysis contributes to understanding the dynamics of hydropower generation in South Asia and facilitates informed decision-making in energy policy and planning.
ARIMA, Change Points, Homogeneity Test, Hydropower Generation, South Asian Countries, Trend Analysis.