Manuscript Title:

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STATE BUDGET REVENUES; EXPENDITURES AND INFLATION IN VIETNAM: INSIGHTS FROM QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Author:

NGUYEN THI VAN ANH, LE THI KIM NHUNG

DOI Number:

DOI:10.5281/zenodo.17060958

Published : 2025-09-10

About the author(s)

1. NGUYEN THI VAN ANH - PhD, University of Labour and Social Affairs.
2. LE THI KIM NHUNG - PhD, Associate Professor, Thuongmai University.

Full Text : PDF

Abstract

The study examines the relationship between government budget revenues and expenditures and inflation in Vietnam. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods, the research team demonstrates that state budget revenues and expenditures have a certain impact on the inflation rate in Vietnam during the period from 2005 to 2024. Annual data on government budget revenues and expenditures and the inflation rate (represented by the Consumer Price Index – CPI) were collected and analyzed using EViews 12 software. The regression results indicate the following: There is a positive relationship between government expenditure (CNS) and inflation, with a 1% increase in government spending leading to a 2.193227% increase in the CPI; There is an inverse relationship between government revenue (TNS) and inflation, with a 1% increase in government revenue leading to a 1.491342% decrease in the CPI; There is a positive relationship between budget deficit and inflation, with a VND 1,000,000 billion increase in the budget deficit resulting in a 0.974% increase in the CPI. Based on the research findings, the team proposes several policy recommendations for managing fiscal policy and stabilizing inflation, aiming toward overall macroeconomic stability.


Keywords

Relationship, Government Revenue, Government Expenditure, Inflation, Vietnam.