Manuscript Title:

REAL ESTATE BUBBLES, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION EFFECTS IN BRICS+: EVIDENCE FROM SPATIAL SPILLOVERS, NONLINEAR, AND TIME-VARYING TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS

Author:

DAVID UMORU, IMRAN ENIKE ABU, MALACHY ASHYWEL UGBAKA, UDE BASSEY OBETEN, BEAUTY IGBINOVIA, EKOMOBONG OKON BEN, OGECHI CECILIA CHUKWU

DOI Number:

DOI:10.5281/zenodo.21028672

Published : 2026-04-23

About the author(s)

1. DAVID UMORU - Department of Economics, Edo State University, Uzairue, Iyamho, Nigeria, Km 7 Auchi-Abuja Expressway, Iyamho, Edo State, Nigeria.
2. IMRAN ENIKE ABU - Department of Economics, Edo State University, Uzairue, Iyamho, Nigeria, Km 7 Auchi-Abuja Expressway, Iyamho, Edo State, Nigeria.
3. MALACHY ASHYWEL UGBAKA - Department of Economics, University of Calabar, Nigeria.
4. UDE BASSEY OBETEN - Department of Social Work, University of Calabar, Nigeria.
5. BEAUTY IGBINOVIA - Department of Economics, Edo State University, Uzairue, Iyamho, Nigeria, Km 7 Auchi-Abuja Expressway, Iyamho, Edo State, Nigeria.
6. EKOMOBONG OKON BEN - Department of Library and Information Science, University of Calabar, Nigeria.
7. OGECHI CECILIA CHUKWU - Department of Social Work, University of Calabar, Nigeria.

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Abstract

This study investigates the systemic transmission and cross-border spillovers of localized real estate bubble shocks across the BRICS Plus bloc over the period 1999Q1 to 2025Q4. Recognizing that housing market exuberance has evolved from isolated domestic phenomena into highly synchronized global threats, this research deploys a multi-layered econometric architecture to deconstruct these dynamics. Using the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) methodology, the study first identifies and date-stamps episodes of speculative exuberance to construct continuous bubble pressure indices. We then map the frequency-dependent transmission of these shocks using a Wavelet-TVP-VAR framework, revealing that short-run liquidity panics progressively entrench themselves as long-run structural wealth degradation. By applying a Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model (SDPM) alongside Panel Local Projections (LP), the empirical results decisively reject the assumption of purely localized housing cycles; nearly half of the macro-financial variance is imported through spatial trade-financial networks; unmitigated real estate bubbles function as highly contagious, multi-dimensional threats to sovereign stability and household welfare. We find that speculative housing shocks embed profound procyclical instability into the national economy; a bursting property bubble triggers an immediate spike in structural cost-push inflation, prolonged GDP volatility, and a persistent drain on sovereign foreign exchange reserves. Momentously, Quantile-on-Quantile (QQ) regressions expose a highly regressive welfare shock, demonstrating that real estate distress systematically traps credit-constrained and low-income households in a severe contractionary cycle. The boom phase inflates import demand for construction materials, widening current account deficits, while the inevitable burst triggers rapid capital flight and forces central banks to drain foreign exchange reserves to defend depreciating local currencies; Extreme housing speculation operates as a highly regressive, structural tax; Deep trade and financial linkages ensure that property distress in one anchor economy frictionlessly exports price pressures, output volatility, and reserve depletion across the entire BRICS Plus network. Forecast error variance decompositions expose profound structural heterogeneity across the bloc: financialized hubs (China, UAE) transmit risk via wealth and collateral channels, institutional nodes (Russia, Egypt) via bank balance sheets, and frontier markets (Ethiopia, Iran) via foreign exchange and confidence panics. Consumption losses are strongest among credit-constrained households and in economies where residential real estate is deeply embedded in bank collateral and household portfolios. Reactive, uniform monetary adjustments are inadequate, mandating the adoption of automated, bespoke, and synchronized macro-financial credit frameworks to shield aggregate welfare. The study concludes that BRICS Plus policymakers require early warning systems, countercyclical loan-to-value limits, real estate exposure caps, regional housing data harmonization and cross-border macro-financial surveillance capable of detecting bubble localization before it becomes systemic contagion.


Keywords

Real Estate Bubbles; BRICS Plus; Macro-Financial Spillovers; Cross-Border Contagion; Financial Networks; Loan-to-Value Limits; Countercyclical Buffers; Systemic Risk Mitigation); Household Consumption; Wealth Effect; Time-Varying Connectedness.