1. DAVID UMORU - Department of Economics, Edo State University Uzairue, Iyamho, Nigeria.
2. EFFIONG, SOLOMON EDEM - Department of Economics, Wellspring University.
3. ISEDU MUSTAFA OKHOME - Department of Banking and Finance, Ambrose Alli University, Ekpoma, Nigeria.
4. GODWIN ELOGHOSA JEFFERY - Department of Finance and Economics, Manchester Metropolitan University, United Kingdom.
5. BEAUTY IGBINOVIA - Department of Economics, Edo State University Uzairue, Iyamho, Nigeria.
6. RASHIDAH ELAMAH - Department of Economics, Edo State University Uzairue, Iyamho, Nigeria.
7. OWUOPELE, GILBERT EBIKELA - Department of Economics, Wellspring University.
8. ORUKPE, LEWIS OSEMUDIA - Department of Economics, Wellspring University.
9. OMOREGIE, OTAMERE - Department of Economics, Wellspring University.
This research studies the transmission and spillover of the dollar (USD), Euro (EUR) and the pound (GBP)
to Casablanca stock exchange (CSE), regional securities exchange (BRVM) and Nairobi securities
exchange (NSE) from 1 January 2018 to 30 December 2026. This period is of special significance as this
study encompasses the two most recent major global exogenous shocks, that is, the COVID-19 pandemic
(2020) and poly-crises of high inflation and geopolitical fragmentation (2023-2024). In order to test the long
memory properties of the volatility and the VAR-GARCH methodological framework, as well as the impulse
response functions (IRFs) used to test the persistence and magnitude of currency-induced spillovers from
the volatility shocks, we employ DCC-FIGARCH model framework. Long-memory behaviour in all three
markets is indicated to exhibit substantially. Consequently, this rejects the weak-form efficient market
hypothesis (EMH). The Kenyan economy, which boasts the highest persistence measure, d = 0.68, signals
that shocks decline more slowly. The implications of the VAR-GARCH analysis indicate that there is a one-
way spillover in volatility from the exchange rate to the stock market in Kenya. Specifically, a depreciation
of the exchange rate crashes the valuation of the stock market. The coefficient is 0.35. BRVM’s spillover
effects are insignificant according to the estimation results. This indicates that the Euro peg is a good firewall
against contagion. The CSE and NSE each have hybrid resiliency. CSE can absorb shocks more readily
than an NSE can. CSE has shown sensitivity to Euro-zone fluctuations. The NSE was suspected of being
dollar-Satellite by Kirch. In other words, 2023 global tightening cycle, NSE sensitive to USD value
fluctuations and capital flight. Conversely, Casablanca (CSE) and BRVM exchanges are of a Euro-Satellite
profile. These operations respond massively to Eurozone stability but are a safe haven for shocks directed
at the USD. The pandemic shock in 2020 was synchronized and symmetric, however, the multidimensional
crisis on 2023–25 as asymmetric volatility transmission which recover market either with lower impact or
with high external debt overexposure and was punished. Insights into these mechanisms will be critical to
diversifying portfolios internationally and formulating policies. The East African market is distinct from West
and North Africa, suggesting that risk management strategies should include a currency aware hedging
strategy. The Friedmanite view suggests that flexible exchange rates are shock absorbers for developing
countries. This finding contradicts it. The effects of shocks on countries like Africa that rely on imports get
magnified due to floating rates. As per recommendations, the Frontier nations may maintain fixed exchange
rates for the development of the equity market and protection against global financial contagion.
Volatility Spillover, Multivariate FIGARCH, VAR-GARCH, Currency Regimes, African Stock Markets, Euro-Satellite, Poly-Crisis, Long Memory.