Manuscript Title:

INCLUSIVE GROWTH ASSESSMENT AND THE MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS IN PAKISTAN: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Author:

MAJID KHAN, Dr. NAILA NAZIR, JAWAD RAHIM AFRIDI, NAVEED JEHAN

DOI Number:

DOI:10.5281/zenodo.8343439

Published : 2023-09-10

About the author(s)

1. MAJID KHAN - Ph.D Scholar, Department of Economics, University of Peshawar, Pakistan.
2. Dr. NAILA NAZIR - Chairperson, Department of Economics, University of Peshawar, Pakistan.
3. JAWAD RAHIM AFRIDI - Ph.D Scholar, Department of Economics, University of Peshawar, Pakistan.
4. NAVEED JEHAN - Ph.D Scholar, Department of Economics, University of Peshawar, Pakistan.

Full Text : PDF

Abstract

This paper analyses the inclusive growth in Pakistan. The studies has been divided into two stages. In the first stage, the inclusive growth of Pakistan for the year 1980 to 2019 was calculated by using the methodology developed by Asian Development Bank which combines Economic Growth, Employment, Education, Health, Infrastructure, Poverty and Inequality into a single index. In the second stage, impact of some macroeconomic variables on inclusive growth was calculated. The results showed that on average, Pakistan was at satisfactory position in terms of inclusive growth. Inclusive growth was the highest in 1983, and was the lowest in 1999, 2001 and 2002. The low inclusive growth was because of low GDP growth and high level of poverty level in those years. The IG has been positively affected by GDP growth, decrease in poverty ratio, rise government expenditure on health and increase infrastructure, while have negative correlation with poverty and inequality. The long-run autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model reveals that the Consumer Price Index, Domestic Credit to Private sector, foreign remittances, Gross domestic savings (% of GDP), and General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) significantly and positively affect inclusive growth. Conversely, Trade openness have a negative and significant relationship, indicating that a 1 percent increase in trade decreases inclusive growth by 2.8%.


Keywords

Inclusive Growth, Pakistan, Macroeconomic, ARDL